8th May 2020

COVID-19 Impacts: Opportunities for a green recovery?

Now in our seventh week of lockdown in the UK, the reduction in traffic on our roads and fewer planes overhead mean that the air seems cleaner and the sounds of nature have become more noticeable. In some ways it feels like social distancing has made us more connected to our local communities as neighbours make an effort to check in on each other and we do what we can to support local businesses.

Yet whilst these changes feel like they could be ‘silver linings’, to what extent are they just a blip or is there potential for us tackle the climate crisis as we take steps to recover from COVID?

The lockdown has forced us to quickly change so much about the way we live and work.  With a ban on all but essential journeys, the weekly survey undertaken by the ONS recorded that around half of adults in employment in the UK have been working from home (49%) and many of us have found ways to replace leisure pursuits previously undertaken away from home with stay at home alternatives.

The ONS also report that 59% of adults are watching more films and streaming services and 51% are using the internet to continue their other usual activities such as virtual worshipping. The video conferencing industry is booming as we turn to their services as a replacement for meetings of both a work and social nature - Zoom reported 300 million daily meeting participants worldwide in April 2020 compared to just 10 million in December 2019!.

Lockdown rules in the UK allow us to take a daily visit to the outdoors for exercise, leading to a surge in the numbers of people taking part in recreation in their local green spaces. On writing there is limited published data on the growth in the use of local greenspaces but personal observations suggest that while some people are replacing their time spent in an indoor gym with outdoor exercise, families are replacing their normal sports and clubs with outdoor pursuits such as cycling  (cycle retailers have reported a boom in sales).

Of course, the global lockdown has also had a major impact on longer journeys with devastating impacts for the travel and tourism industry. Statistics from Flightradar24 show that the app tracked an average of around 100,000 commercial flights worldwide per day until early March but that volume has now shrunk to less than 28,000 per day.

While how we move around is the area most immediately impacted by the lockdown, the restrictions have also had a significant knock on effect on how we shop for food and drink. The travel limitations and the need for some households to go into isolation has led to a huge increase in demand for online shopping deliveries (Kantar data shows that over 65s are spending 94% more on deliveries than a year ago) and grocery shopping in local, independent convenience stores (+45%)

The types of products we buy has also changed, the Kantar data shows that the initial ‘stocking up’ saw more sales of frozen and canned foods while less time poor households bought the ingredients needed for home baking. Anecdotal evidence also suggests that an increased number of consumers are buying their food and drink directly from local suppliers. This shortening of the supply chain has been reported in many cases, from dairies delivering milk and other fresh produce to customer’s doorsteps to the return of fish vans and small breweries establishing hop & drop delivery services.

This trend is driven by a number of factors including food and drink businesses seeking new revenue streams to replace those lost with the closure of bars and restaurants and the rise in ‘community spirit’ seen across the country as people do what they can to support their local businesses (last week’s ONS survey found that 80% think that people are doing more to help others during the crisis and 66% think that their local community would support them if needed).

Emerging from full lockdown

On writing it is likely that the current level of lockdown will continue for a number of weeks but in time there will be a softening as steps are taken to get the economy moving again. However, with social distancing measures continuing to prevent a resurgence of the virus, how we live and work will be very different for some time.

In particular, with public transport capacity significantly limited, how people can safely return to work will be a huge challenge. The solution may involve those who can work from home continuing to do so, staggering the working day and increasing opportunities for active travel (i.e. walking and cycling to work).

In preparation for increased levels of active travel, last week Transport Scotland announced funding of a new infrastructure programme to improve Scotland’s network of walking and cycling routes, widening existing routes and creating temporary ‘pop up’ routes.  Other parts of the UK are making similar plans to create safe cycling routes to and from workplaces and other vital places.

How we travel for leisure, in particular holidays, is also likely to be very different for a long time. Next week 56 Degree Insight will launch a new Scottish Tourism Index which will provide regular data on the Scottish population’s leisure and tourism aspirations, during and following the crisis – our expectation is that whilst domestic tourism will return in some form during 2020, it will take much longer before we see a recovery in international travel.

A short term blip or longer term opportunity?

Data from Air Quality Scotland published this week showed how decreased levels of traffic have resulted in a massive improvement in air quality in Scotland’s towns and cities. Specifically, levels of Nitrogen Dioxide dropped by an average of 46% on our most polluted streets.

Other data collected across the UK by Defra and globally by other agencies have shown a similar clearing of the air as volumes of traffic and industrial activity declined. However, while the fresh air is a pleasant reminder of how things could be, unless action is taken it is likely that post COVID 19 high levels of emissions will quickly return.

Similarly, while Carbon Dioxide emissions have declined massively around the world during the lock down period, largely due to decreased levels of industrial activity, this is predicted to be a short term blip. In China emissions decreased by 18% between early February and mid March but are already reported to be returning to pre-crisis levels.

Overall, experts estimate that the crisis will result in a drop in global emissions of just 0.3%, less than during the 2008 to 2009 economic crisis, and irrelevant to the longer term fight against climate change if levels return to those before the crisis.

Opportunities for a green recovery?

Clearly, no one would want emissions to be lowered in the way that has happening during the COVID 19 crisis.  The dire economic and
health effects of the lockdown that have led to the reduced emission levels described above are far from the vision of a sustainable green economy that environmentalists seek.

However, as plans are put in place for the long recovery from the COVID 19 crisis, are there opportunities for us to tackle the impacts of both crises together?

Lasting changes to individual behaviours?

At an individual level, it is likely that some of the behaviour changes that have been ‘enforced’ upon us such as travelling less, utilising our local greenspaces, connecting with our local communities and buying local produce may lead to some longer lasting habits.

What society does next could be influenced by the structural changes around us; for example the investment made by authorities to support active travel and improve our local greenspaces, the changes made by food and drink businesses to be able to deliver produce directly to customers and a reduction in the availability of low cost overseas holidays.

It is likely that many companies who have successfully implemented working from home practices during the lockdown will continue to offer more flexible working practices in future. With the predicted  economic downturn, companies may also see the commercial benefits in downsizing their offices and business trips taken for meetings, training etc. are likely to be conducted digitally.

The community action seen during the COVID 19 crisis might empower more individuals to try to work together to make a difference in tackling the climate crisis, possibly helping to address the gap previously seen between the high proportion of people who say they care about the environment and the much smaller numbers who do anything significant to help to protect it.

Globally co-ordinated action by government?

However, while the changes to behaviour made by individuals and businesses are important, it is generally recognised that to make the changes required to have a significant impact on levels of carbon emissions, we need the support and investment of world leaders.

2020 was expected to be a pivotal year for the climate crisis, the COP 26 UN Climate Change Conference was due to take place in Glasgow in November but this has now been postponed until 2021 as leaders need to focus on tackling COVID 19.  There are worrying signs that the outbreak is causing some governments to shift their focus away from initiatives designed to reduce emissions. For example in the US the oil lobby is pushing the Trump administration to relax the enforcement of environmental legislation and in Brazil we see some reduced enforcement of regulations designed to protect the rainforest. 

However most leaders remain focused on the challenges of climate change. Moreover, over the months to come as governments worldwide invest many billions of dollars to stimulate an economic recovery from the COVID 19 crisis, there is an opportunity for this investment to be targeted to support those sectors and businesses who take steps to accelerate decarbonisation.

There is an opportunity to invest in the types of technologies and systems the world needs to build a sustainable, circular economy that uses cleaner energy alternatives. However, like eradicating COVID 19, it will require a collaborative, global approach to make a difference - as neither viruses nor the effects of climate change will respect borders!

Over the years, the team have undertaken a great deal of research related to the environment, transport, tourism, food and drink and outdoor recreation. These views are our own and placed ‘out there’ for discussion and debate – and we would be happy to discuss them further