The results from wave three of our monthly monitor of how the Scottish population feel about tourism and leisure during the COVID-19 Pandemic
With the tourism industry re-opening in Scotland on 15th July, the results from wave three of our monthly monitor of how the Scottish population feel about tourism and leisure during the COVID-19 Pandemic provide interesting reading…..
COVID-19 lockdown began on 23rd March in Scotland. Now, almost four months on, and the Scottish tourism industry is making its first tentative steps to re-opening on the 15th of July.
Over these last 15 weeks, many of us have been thinking about how the pandemic has made us feel about travel generally and our 2020 holiday plans in particular – and we were keen to track how the Scottish resident adult population’s views and opinions have moved over this period of lockdown.
As a result, in early May, 56 Degree Insight launched a new survey designed to monitor the tourism and leisure desires and concerns of the Scottish population – The Scottish Tourism Index. Where would they want to go first when conditions allow, and what will they take into account when planning that trip? The first wave of research was undertaken in the first week of May and repeated again at the start of June (click on each month to access these results).
The week before re-opening, in early July, we went back out to ask Scots how they now felt about holidays and travel given that it would very soon be possible again. We asked broad questions around foreign travel, self-quarantine lifting and the appeal of key overseas destinations, but the main focus was on the Scottish tourism industry and the potential for ‘staycations’. How many were thinking about, planning or had already booked such trips – where and when? And what were their views on physical distancing – especially the 2m vs 1m debate. Importantly, this time we also sought a community angle – how would Scots feel about welcoming visitors to their own communities? The results are reported here – a range of new questions have been included as well as repeats of questions asked 4 weeks previously to identify any emerging trends or changes in attitudes.
The results are presented below from Wave 3, and some key findings have emerged:
Some major impacts of COVID-19 on how Scots feel about travel generally are continuing to emerge and evolve:
In May we saw the spectrum of opinion across the population - from those feeling extremely nervy about the prospect of travel (around 11%) to those who couldn’t wait to travel again – around 17%. And of course, the other three quarters of the population were placed somewhere between these extremes, with an expectation to travel again but expecting changes to what they’d done before and additional caution.
In June, we saw that safety and hygiene concerns were uppermost in minds as were fears around different transport choices for future holidays – air, and especially cruising. And a desire to stay close to home for holidays at the end of lockdown was clear – the majority wouldn’t consider traveling outside of the UK and the prospect of having to self-quarantine for 14 days on return, put 9 in 10 Scots off any prospect of overseas travel.
This month, we have built on this contextual story resulting in some interesting outcomes:
Firstly, the removal of self quarantine requirements for certain destinations appears to be having very minimal impact. Despite all of the publicity and discussion around air bridges in the media over the last couple of weeks, after discovering in June that 89% of Scots would be unlikely to travel overseas because of the need to self-quarantine on their return, the removal of this requirement for a number of markets is likely to only have a minimal impact: only 17% of them would reconsider taking a foreign holiday this summer.
This links directly to the clear and continued lack of desire or demand for air travel – around four in every five Scots stated they would be very unlikely to travel by air for a holiday or break in 2020 (78%), illustrating the problems facing the air industry.
And there is also a very limited desire to travel elsewhere within the UK which is directly linked to some of the scenes and images of crowded beaches and seafronts in parts of England during May and June – this has resulted in 9 in 10 Scots being put off taking a holiday south of the border this summer (87%).
With increasing concerns about travelling, Scotland’s appeal to Scots remains significantly ahead of the appeal of other parts of the UK or overseas:
The July wave of fieldwork for the Index was undertaken in early July, as lockdown restrictions were beginning to ease significantly in Scotland, and just ahead of the ‘re-opening’ of the tourism industry on 15th July. In the May and June survey waves, when tourism and holidays seemed a distant way off, when we asked Scots about their desires for travel as soon as it became possible again, their answers reflected their aspirations based on how they felt at that time of real lockdown. The same questions asked in early July, just before tourism became a reality again, has revealed a general dampening in the immediate desire for tourism. Despite the realities of a return to a degree of normality and the possibility to travel, the cautious movement for many out of lockdown means that the immediate desire to travel on holiday has been put on the back burner for many.
Despite that, as before, for most Scots, a staycation is much more appealing than travelling elsewhere in the UK or going overseas this year.
And as before, trips to rural parts of Scotland are marginally more appealing to most than trips to the coast or seaside and much more appealing than Scottish city breaks. Day trips from home remain of greatest appeal in the short term for most, and though there is still reticence to visit cities, day trips to the likes of Glasgow and Edinburgh are likely to be where the visitor economies in these locations have the greatest initial benefits.
We discovered in the previous two waves of research that we are likely to return to a new world of attitudes and choices when it comes to holidays in Scotland. This evidence continues in July with a particular focus on physical distancing:
The main focus of the July survey was on the appeal of Scotland as a staycation destination. In general, for a Scottish holiday, feeling safe was a key driver of choice (17%) – hence the appeal of visiting places easy to reach from home (16%) and where there is a low incidence of the virus (specifically mentioned by 15%). Similar proportions would seek somewhere quiet, away from the crowds, emphasizing the appeal of rural areas. And, with much of the population suffering financially, we should not overlook the importance of affordability – 14% mentioned the importance of price and value. And consistent with the findings in June, over 4 in 5 (83%) stated that they would only visit tourism facilities which had been checked and endorsed as safe and following best practice COVID-19 hygiene.
Physical Distancing: For several weeks, the tourism industry has been very vocal about the need to reduce physical distancing from 2 meters to 1 meter to make trading viable for many businesses. The Scottish Government responded by stating that from 15th July, 1 meter distancing is permissible in certain situations so long as a number of other mitigations are in place.
Crucially, absent in much of this debate have been the views of potential tourists. In our survey, what is clear is that for most tourists, the greatest comfort remains with 2 meter distancing – 90% of those planning a holiday in Scotland this year are comfortable with that. Reducing the distance to 1 meter, but with additional mitigations such as face coverings, Perspex glass etc does have an impact for some - though the majority (77%) are reasonably comfortable with this. If however the distance was reduced to 1 meter but without the need for other mitigations, levels of comfort drop considerably – only 40% of those planning a Scottish holiday would remain OK with this.
So, while there is broad support for the reduction to 1 meter in certain situations, this is only if the additional mitigations are in place and there is clear signage forewarning visitors. It needs to be recognised that between 10 and 20% of tourists (especially older visitors) may decide not to visit tourism facilities where physical distancing is decreased.
So, what is the anatomy of the Scottish Staycation in 2020?
Encouragingly, over half of Scots are considering a staycation this year (53%) – this equates to around 2.4 million Scots holidays in 2020. And over half of these holidays are planned by Scots who would not have taken a Scottish holiday were it not for the restrictions imposed by Coronavirus (52%).
By 8th July, our survey suggests that 16% of Scots had already planned or booked a Scottish holiday post-July 15, and a further 37% were thinking about a Scottish holiday this year. Some 38% had no intention to take a Scottish holiday, but a further 9% were unsure about their plans.
And amongst the 2.4 million Scots planning to take a holiday, families in particular were keen to take such a holiday before the planned re-opening of schools on 11 August – 44% of families planning a holiday wanted it to take place before the schools went back or during the October break (28%), whereas for those older Scots with no dependent children, late August and September are popular with 44% planning holidays in Scotland then. The good news for the industry is that many Scots are willing to take a break outside the peak season – over one in five trips are planned for September (21%), and almost a quarter will be later in October, November and December (23%).
And as we’ve seen in previous waves of the survey, particularly popular locations are rural areas – especially the Highlands, with 44% planning to visit.
And self-catering accommodation is the most popular choice for most – 50% of prospective Scots holiday makers want the safety and independence this provides. Small hotels (29%), guest houses and B&Bs (22%) and large hotels (18%) are next most popular – though these claimed levels of interest represent lower market shares than would normally be the case. Staying with friends and relatives (18%) and under canvas (12%) both represent popular alternatives for Scots this year.
But how do Scottish communities feel about welcoming tourists to their areas?:
In the June survey, we established that 95% of prospective Scots tourists would be careful to respect the views and safety of the communities they visited on a Scottish holiday. In the July survey, we were keen to establish how people living in these communities felt about the prospect of the re-opening of tourism and the potential influx of visitors to their communities. As might be expected, a number of concerns exist. Across Scotland as a whole, 37% are comfortable and ready to welcome back visitors. However a further 30% have more concerns and would only be comfortable with visitors from Scotland. And 16% would wish to restrict access to more local visitors, while 18% would prefer no visitors to their areas at the moment.
And when we break the results down geographically, the concerns are much greater in rural areas north of the central belt – almost four in ten would either prefer no visitors or only a small number of more local visitors (38%). And they are even more of an issue in our island communities where only 10% are comfortable with tourists returning, and 45% would prefer either none this year or very small numbers of local visitors.
Read about this and much more by clicking on the slide show below or downloading the full report.
For further information about the Scottish Tourism Index or if you wish to discuss the results, please contact us directly by mobile or email (see details at bottom of webpage)
Click on the image below to view the third wave of results from the Scottish Tourism Index - July 2020:
